Random thoughts

Dire Wolves, man.  Crazy stuff.  Assuming they're viable and fertile and won't suffer horrible genetic defects over the course of many generations, this is a revolutionary development.  It won't stop with this species, nor will it stop with the woolly mammoth or the Dodo or any of the other critters being talked about.  We're going to see sabretooth cats roaming around and eating people before this is all said and done, I guarantee it.

Cold days are done.  Or, at least, that's the way it seems.  Good thing, too, because the bone-dry winter air was resulting in wildfires in this area, and the summer humidity should put a damper on that. 

The stock market has been crazy this month.  I'll do an in-depth post about it later.

The letter "t" on my keyboard is giving me problems.  Sometimes when I press it, it doesn't do anything.  Other times, it gives me two t's when I only press the key once.  Very frustrating.  I've already tried compressed air and vacuum cleaner on the keyboard, but it didn't help.

The improvements in AI-generated video over the last several months have been impressive bordering on astounding.  Even odds we'll be watching custom-made movies made from our prompts on Grok before year's end.  The porn industry will probably be affected first, so AI video's affect on that might be something of a bellwether and tell us what's in store for conventional Hollywood.

I'm over my illness, and I'm feeling pretty good right now.  That scares me.  Whenever I start feeling good or confident, some catastrophe happens.

I've been enjoying the spring flowers, and I hope you have, too, if it's spring where you live.  Modern living has rendered us too far removed from nature, and we should all make a concerted effort to spend more time outside.

Val Kilmer has passed away

Dead from pneumonia at the age of 65.  :(

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/val-kilmer-star-batman-forever-040433506.html

I'm a Gen Xer, so Val's movie performances were a big part of my childhood.  I thought he was the coolest guy I'd ever seen in Real Genius.  I wanted to be Chris Knight.

I'm glad he got to do the Top Gun sequel before he passed.  Major kudos to Tom Cruise for bringing him on for that.

And he should have won an Oscar for his performance in Tombstone.  I think most people would agree about that.

But yeah, this really sucks, man.  Call me delusionally optimistic, but I still held out hope that he'd recover from his throat cancer and make a heroic comeback to acting.  Instead, like Bill Paxton, a part of my cinematic childhood has been taken away too soon.  :(

R.I.P., Mr. Kilmer, and thanks for the movies.

 

Sinus infection

I was doing so well.  For the past couple of weeks, I had been steadily increasing my exercise routine and starting to get back into some semblance of decent shape.  Not dramatic progress, but measurable.  Baby steps.

And then I got sick, and now everything is on pause, because my body needs its limited resources to fight the germs.

Why have sinus infections always hit me the hardest?  I don't know.  Covid wasn't as bad as the average sinus infection.  Neither was the walking pneumonia I had back in my teen years.

I've got a wedding to attend in early April, and I really hope I'm not sick anymore by then.

Come on, body.  Win this fight, and do it fast.

Next leg down?

Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment purposes only.  It is not intended to be personal financial advice.  If you want financial advice, hire a financial advisor.  I'm just some guy on the internet, so please don't make any financial decisions based on this or any other blog post.

 * * *

After a sharp decline in the stock market, the last two trading sessions showed a nice rebound.  Will the rebound continue, or are we on the precipice of the next leg down?

Let's examine the charts.

Here's the S&P 500:

At the top, we see the RSI is below 50.  This suggests that the rebound hasn't yet played itself out.  At the bottom, the MACD is about to see the signal line cross over to the upside, so that's another bullish indicator for this week.  As for the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, there's lots of space between the two, so there won't be a crossover any time soon.  The 50 is above the 200, and that's a long-term bullish indicator.  The index, though, is trading below the 200-day average, so that curve acts as resistance.  We could see modest increases or mostly sideways action this week, but they might not break the 200-day moving average.

Moving on to the VIX...

 

The recent drop-off in stocks only sent the VIX to just under 30.  That's not a lot of volatility for a true correction or crash.  That tells me there might be more volatility on the way.  On the other hand, the MACD just crossed over to the downside, and that's a bearish signal (bullish for stocks).

What about small caps?  Here's the Russell 2000:

As you can see, small caps peaked in November and have been in decline since.  The recently low levels of the RSI are bullish--or at least, temporary rebound--indicators, and we're also about to get a MACD signal line crossover to the bullish side.  On the other hand, the bearish trend has been in place for nearly four months now, so it's firmly in control until we see evidence to the contrary.  Also, the 50-day moving average will soon cross over the 200 to the bearish side, and the index is trading well below the 200.  This index might tread water this week, and possibly next week, too, but then I expect it to resume its fall.

Now we get to the creme de la creme, the Dow Transports.  This index represents the movement of goods and services, and it has long been used as a leading indicator of the broader stock market.  When the market is going one way but the transports are going the opposite way, that's a good indicator that a change in the broader market is about to occur.

 

This chart looks similar to the small-cap chart.  The only significant difference I see is that the 50/200 crossover will happen sooner, probably after Tuesday's trading session.  My conclusions for the transport index is basically the same as for the Russell.

So that's my thinking right now.  Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong.  We'll see.  But I'm not backing up the truck just yet.  Maybe in April or May.

Not as bad as I thought it would be

A powerful storm system blew through here Tuesday night.  I was watching it on the Doppler, and it looked like it might get violent.  Strange thing, though; when it moved into Georgia from Alabama, it started to fizzle out.  We got some rain and wind, but it wasn't anywhere near as bad as I though it was going to be.  A lucky break.

The wind is still a little blustery here right now, but there's no real risk of damage or anything, so it's just an annoyance.

I checked the long-term forecast out of curiosity.  High temps next Tuesday are predicted to be 75.  The following days eventually get a little cooler, but not winter-time cooler.  More like spring.  Is March 11th going to be the de facto first day of spring?  Do we only have five days of winter left?  Man, I hope so.  I can deal with the cold, but only if it's a humid cold, and that's not we get around here.  We get a dry cold, and that just destroys me.  My DNA is optimized for northwestern Europe's wetter winter climates, and my body reminds me of that every January.

I've gotten most of my winter-time outdoor chores done, which mostly consists of getting rid of dead stuff to allow room for new spring growth.  Hopefully we'll have a nice spring flowering season.

First sunburn of the year

It's still just February, but that didn't stop me from getting sunburned today.  I was burning some sticks in the yard, and I stood by the fire for about three hours.  The right-facing sides of my face, neck, and right arm got sunburned.

I can't recall ever getting a sunburn this early in the year before.  Normally, I never burn in winter.  But today was unseasonably warm, so I guess that was the difference. 

At least I got a chore done.  Many more to go.

Venus looms large

Venus looked enormous in the night sky on Monday night.  Bigger than I can ever recall seeing it.

If you've got a clear night in your area this week, try to take a moment to look west after sunset.  The planet is pretty magnificent.