The new Cold War

Time for a little futurism!  :D

Back in December, a new alliance was announced.  Called Pax Silica, its stated purpose is to "secure supply chains for the A.I. era."

https://paxsilica.org/ 

The State Department also has a page about it.

https://www.state.gov/pax-silica 

We understand the importance of cooperation on the enforcement of our respective policies to protect sensitive technologies and critical infrastructure from undue access, influence, or control.   

In this spirit, we intend to further strengthen economic and national security cooperation, including taking complementary actions as appropriate to address non-market policies and practices and enhancing investment security. 

When you read between the lines, it becomes obvious that this is a new military alliance in the same vein as NATO.  A new Digital Curtain has descended across the Indo-Pacific, parts of Europe and Asia, and perhaps even in South America.

NATO was created in 1949.  The Korean War broke out the very next year.  This is what one might call an ominous precedent.

Where will the first war of the new Cold War break out?  That's anyone's guess, but I have a few ideas.  First, let's look at the member states of the Pax Silica:

 

Argentina

Australia

Chile

Costa Rica

El Salvador

European Union

Finland

Germany

Greece

India

Israel

Japan

Kazakhstan

 

Netherlands

 

Norway

 

Panama

 

Philippines

 

Qatar

 

South Korea

 

Singapore

 

Sweden

 

United Arab Emirates

 

United Kingdom

 

United States 

 

 

Those are the "all in" countries, and I think those are the least likely candidates to have a major war hosted on their soil. 

 

Now let's look at the "observer" members:

 

 

Canada

 

Estonia

 

Taiwan 

 

 

I think these are the likeliest candidates since they're neither in nor out.  That makes them in play, contested, and that makes them attractive targets.  After all, we all remember what Mr. Miyagi said about walking down the road, right?  "Walk left side, safe.  Walk right side, safe.  Walk middle, sooner or later... *squish* ...just like grape."

 

Now, Taiwan is pretty obvious, right?  The Chinese don't even officially recognize it as a separate state, and their desires about "bringing it back into the fold" are well-known.  And Estonia isn't much of a reach, either, because it's sandwiched between Russia and the West, and it already has a sizable potential "fifth column" of ethnic Russians living and working in the country.

 

But what about Canada?  Doesn't that seem far-fetched?  Well, yes and no.  On the one hand, it's on a continent far across the sea from Europe and Asia, and it's right next to--and is protected by--the U.S., so any kind of overt military invasion would be a non-starter.  On the other hand, Asian immigration to Canada has changed, perhaps irrevocably, the demographic makeup of the place, and some of those new ethnic and religious groups don't like each other very much.  They've already experienced political assassinations by one group of Indians against another.  The ethnic and religious friction make the country ripe for a "color revolution" sponsored by a foreign government, and such revolutions have a way of snowballing into full-scale civil war or international war.  Or both at the same time.

 

Since politicians and bureaucrats often prefer "salami tactics" over blunt aggression, and since Russia is already embroiled in Ukraine and would have difficulty fighting another war at the same time, I expect the Pax Silica to aim for the lowest-hanging fruit, and that's Estonia.  Or perhaps the other side--Russia, China, and whoever else--will strike there first, though I think that's less likely.  Either way, I'd keep an eye on Estonia.

 

Just my bit of futuristic speculation for today.  Hope it gives you some food for thought.

SpaceX is public

SpaceX had its long-anticipated NASDAQ debut on Friday.  The stock closed at a price of about $161 per share.

A number of ordinary blue-collar workers became instant millionaires due to having worked for the company and been paid partially in stock options.  That makes me happy.

Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.  Appropriate that he's the first, I think, since he's basically Henry Ford, Howard Hughes, and Cornelius Vanderbilt all rolled into one. 

I didn't buy any shares of the stock myself.  I prefer to wait and see.  I might wait until the first earnings report (expected in September, I think).  I also don't own any Tesla stock.  I don't like high valuations.

I'll be fun to watch, though.  I expect the trading action to be exciting for a while.  Great for those who have the stomach for it. 

Drought or deluge

April was bone dry, and so was most of May, but now it's raining like it did in Noah's day.  No real violent wind to speak of as one might expect of thunderstorms this time of year, just a constant rain.  There was a flood warning last night for my region.

The good news is that the land needed the water, so this is a welcome relief.  The bad news is that it's an awful lot to get at one time, and that can be a problem for those in low-lying areas.  And as soon as we get a sunny day, everything green is going to grow like it's on steroids.  You'll soon hear the song of my people throughout the land, and that song is the droning chorus of lawn mowers and edgers and weed-whackers and hedge-trimmers.

I'm not sure when that sunny day will arrive.  It's not yet in the forecast on my little weather doohickey in my browser.  But it will come eventually.  For those who don't want to live in a jungle, periodic work is required, and there is always a reckoning. 

The upcoming SpaceX IPO

This might be the most anticipated IPO in stock market history.  It might also be the biggest, with a projected market cap around 1.75 trillion dollars.

Here's a Motley Fool article about it:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/12/spacex-ipo-heres-what-to-watch-for-next/

An important snippet:

The company must make its registration statement, on Form S-1, publicly available at least 15 days before roadshow activities. This means that if SpaceX aims to launch a roadshow as of June 8 to market the IPO to institutional investors, it must file its registration statement during the week of May 18 at the latest. 

So that's something to watch out for.  If SpaceX does indeed file in time for that roadshow, then in just a few days, we'll all be able to get a glimpse of the company's financials and decide if we want to jump on board.  Personally, I have no idea what to expect from their books.

If the numbers are attractive enough, I might very well pick up some shares.  We'll just have to see.  Whether I buy any or not, though, it's still pretty exciting.

Stretched like a rubber band

Disclaimer:  Nothing in this post or in any other post should be construed as personal investment advice.  It's for my own amusement, nothing more.  If you want investment advice, hire a financial advisor. 

 

 

It's been quite a month for financial markets.  Oil has pulled back from its war-related spike, and stocks have shot up as a result.  (Stocks were oversold, too, so they only needed a nudge to begin rallying.)  Now the stock market is in "overbought" condition.

 

 

 The equal-weighted version, however, has started to pull back a bit:

 

 

And the transports, after a bullish parabolic spike, have pulled back considerably:

 

 

Due to the transports pulling back and the broader market in overbought territory, I'm expecting a pullback soon regardless of what happens in the Middle East. 

There was a strange decoupling between precious metals and oil.  When oil went up, gold and silver went down, and when oil was down, gold and silver were up.  This probably has something to do with the Fed and expectations regarding the next chairman and interest rate decisions, but I don't really have an explanation for it.  Usually, commodities move somewhat together as a result of dollar strength or weakness.

All I know is that oil is the 800-pound gorilla in the room right now.  Some things to consider:

1.)  As a result of oil traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf being interrupted, Asia and Europe have begun to turn more to other sources of oil.  This is good for oil-producing companies that operate in the Western Hemisphere--lots more tankers are already en route to the U.S.--and it's advantageous for the U.S. on the geopolitical level.  "He who controls the spice controls the universe."

2.)  Europe is in a particularly unfortunate pickle when it comes to energy.  By cutting off Russian gas and going all in on the "green" agenda at the expense of hydrocarbons, they've rendered their societies energy-starved.  They're buying natural gas from America at premium prices in addition to the extra oil they will soon be buying from us.  If I didn't know better, I'd say that the motive behind this whole Iran business in the first place actually had nothing to do with Iran but rather was to cripple Europe and force them to get in line with whatever Washington wants them to do.

3.)  The world runs on oil, and if supply disruptions go on for too much longer, shortages will become commonplace.  It won't just be the gasoline you put in your car's fuel tank, but also motor oil and bunker fuel and lubricants and greases of all kinds.  It will also affect the price of plastics, and plastic is in almost everything nowadays.  Oil is a bigger deal than most people think.  This whole Persian Gulf thing really needs to wrap up soon so that shipping can get back to normal.

4.)  Fertilizer.  A significant amount of fertilizer comes from ships exiting the Persian Gulf.  We've already got drought conditions in some places in America--including right here in Georgia, a major agricultural state--and a fertilizer shortage on top of that can only hurt crop production further.  We like to think that famine is a largely a thing of the past, but we're actually more vulnerable to it than ever.

So there you go.  If the Gulf thing wraps up soon, then perhaps things can get back to normal before they get too bad.  If not, then global catastrophe isn't off the table.

Welcome back, astronauts!

Congratulations on a successful mission and safe return, and thanks for all the new photos.  :)

Let's go space truckin'

Artemis II is spaceborne!  Yee-haw!  :D

Good luck to all aboard, and Godspeed.

Live update link:

https://www.space.com/news/live/artemis-2-nasa-moon-mission-launch-updates-april-1-2026

 

We moved through the Canaveral moonstop
Dancin' and gone away