It's supposed to get cold again here. Lows are predicted to be below freezing, so that should kill off all the flowers and new leaf growth that have occurred so far.
It sucks, but there's nothing to do about it.
In other outdoorsy news, I recently felled a small oak tree that was not in a good place and needed to go. I'm going to try to save the trunk, let it cure, and see what I can make of it.
Not in the woods, though. Sorry, Robert Frost. These roads are in the stock market.
I'm trying to figure out which way it's going to go, and I simply don't know. The signals are mixed.
Let's look at those last few candlesticks. The last four trading sessions have all seen the market close at or below the fifty-day moving average. This suggests that the 50-DMA is acting as resistance.
On the bottom side, two of those candles have bounced off the 200-day moving average. This suggests the 200-DMA is acting as support.
The two DMA lines are awfully close together, and something will have to give way soon. There will either be a break out to the upside or one to the downside.
The RSI is around 40, so that's neither oversold nor overbought territory, so I can't glean much from it.
The spread on the MACD suggests that if there's a breakout this week, I'd bet on it being to the upside. However, there's also a long-term support line that has recently been broken, so maybe the market will continue down to the next support line.
If my calculations are correct, there was a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line at about 3971, and the latest trading session closed well below that, so that line can be considered broken. The next retracement is the 50%, and that one's at around 3900.
Put it all together, and I'm not sure which way to go. I'm leaning bearish, though, at lest for the next couple of weeks.
Disclaimer: This is for entertainment only. Don't make any financial decisions based on this post or any other post.
