According to Polymarket, there is now a 52% chance of a Fed rate hike next week.
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/fed-rates
The precious metals seem to be following the Polymarket odds. As the chance of a rate hike has increased, the gold price has pulled back. Gold has already pulled back to a Fibonacci retracement level, so any further pullback would send it down to the next support level.
A rate hike really needs to happen, though. Inflation is still way too onerous. The Dow transports have gone nowhere all summer, having peaked back in April, and if oil continues to be a problem thanks to this Hormuz business, it could send transports into a nosedive.
I think here's a good chance of a broader market correction in the fall. I think whether it happens or not is largely dependent on the oil market. Whether we like it or not, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy. One way or another, the spice must flow.
