The new Cold War

Time for a little futurism!  :D

Back in December, a new alliance was announced.  Called Pax Silica, its stated purpose is to "secure supply chains for the A.I. era."

https://paxsilica.org/ 

The State Department also has a page about it.

https://www.state.gov/pax-silica 

We understand the importance of cooperation on the enforcement of our respective policies to protect sensitive technologies and critical infrastructure from undue access, influence, or control.   

In this spirit, we intend to further strengthen economic and national security cooperation, including taking complementary actions as appropriate to address non-market policies and practices and enhancing investment security. 

When you read between the lines, it becomes obvious that this is a new military alliance in the same vein as NATO.  A new Digital Curtain has descended across the Indo-Pacific, parts of Europe and Asia, and perhaps even in South America.

NATO was created in 1949.  The Korean War broke out the very next year.  This is what one might call an ominous precedent.

Where will the first war of the new Cold War break out?  That's anyone's guess, but I have a few ideas.  First, let's look at the member states of the Pax Silica:

 

Argentina

Australia

Chile

Costa Rica

El Salvador

European Union

Finland

Germany

Greece

India

Israel

Japan

Kazakhstan

 

Netherlands

 

Norway

 

Panama

 

Philippines

 

Qatar

 

South Korea

 

Singapore

 

Sweden

 

United Arab Emirates

 

United Kingdom

 

United States 

 

 

Those are the "all in" countries, and I think those are the least likely candidates to have a major war hosted on their soil. 

 

Now let's look at the "observer" members:

 

 

Canada

 

Estonia

 

Taiwan 

 

 

I think these are the likeliest candidates since they're neither in nor out.  That makes them in play, contested, and that makes them attractive targets.  After all, we all remember what Mr. Miyagi said about walking down the road, right?  "Walk left side, safe.  Walk right side, safe.  Walk middle, sooner or later... *squish* ...just like grape."

 

Now, Taiwan is pretty obvious, right?  The Chinese don't even officially recognize it as a separate state, and their desires about "bringing it back into the fold" are well-known.  And Estonia isn't much of a reach, either, because it's sandwiched between Russia and the West, and it already has a sizable potential "fifth column" of ethnic Russians living and working in the country.

 

But what about Canada?  Doesn't that seem far-fetched?  Well, yes and no.  On the one hand, it's on a continent far across the sea from Europe and Asia, and it's right next to--and is protected by--the U.S., so any kind of overt military invasion would be a non-starter.  On the other hand, Asian immigration to Canada has changed, perhaps irrevocably, the demographic makeup of the place, and some of those new ethnic and religious groups don't like each other very much.  They've already experienced political assassinations by one group of Indians against another.  The ethnic and religious friction make the country ripe for a "color revolution" sponsored by a foreign government, and such revolutions have a way of snowballing into full-scale civil war or international war.  Or both at the same time.

 

Since politicians and bureaucrats often prefer "salami tactics" over blunt aggression, and since Russia is already embroiled in Ukraine and would have difficulty fighting another war at the same time, I expect the Pax Silica to aim for the lowest-hanging fruit, and that's Estonia.  Or perhaps the other side--Russia, China, and whoever else--will strike there first, though I think that's less likely.  Either way, I'd keep an eye on Estonia.

 

Just my bit of futuristic speculation for today.  Hope it gives you some food for thought.