Sinus infection

I was doing so well.  For the past couple of weeks, I had been steadily increasing my exercise routine and starting to get back into some semblance of decent shape.  Not dramatic progress, but measurable.  Baby steps.

And then I got sick, and now everything is on pause, because my body needs its limited resources to fight the germs.

Why have sinus infections always hit me the hardest?  I don't know.  Covid wasn't as bad as the average sinus infection.  Neither was the walking pneumonia I had back in my teen years.

I've got a wedding to attend in early April, and I really hope I'm not sick anymore by then.

Come on, body.  Win this fight, and do it fast.

Next leg down?

Disclaimer: This post is for entertainment purposes only.  It is not intended to be personal financial advice.  If you want financial advice, hire a financial advisor.  I'm just some guy on the internet, so please don't make any financial decisions based on this or any other blog post.

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After a sharp decline in the stock market, the last two trading sessions showed a nice rebound.  Will the rebound continue, or are we on the precipice of the next leg down?

Let's examine the charts.

Here's the S&P 500:

At the top, we see the RSI is below 50.  This suggests that the rebound hasn't yet played itself out.  At the bottom, the MACD is about to see the signal line cross over to the upside, so that's another bullish indicator for this week.  As for the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, there's lots of space between the two, so there won't be a crossover any time soon.  The 50 is above the 200, and that's a long-term bullish indicator.  The index, though, is trading below the 200-day average, so that curve acts as resistance.  We could see modest increases or mostly sideways action this week, but they might not break the 200-day moving average.

Moving on to the VIX...

 

The recent drop-off in stocks only sent the VIX to just under 30.  That's not a lot of volatility for a true correction or crash.  That tells me there might be more volatility on the way.  On the other hand, the MACD just crossed over to the downside, and that's a bearish signal (bullish for stocks).

What about small caps?  Here's the Russell 2000:

As you can see, small caps peaked in November and have been in decline since.  The recently low levels of the RSI are bullish--or at least, temporary rebound--indicators, and we're also about to get a MACD signal line crossover to the bullish side.  On the other hand, the bearish trend has been in place for nearly four months now, so it's firmly in control until we see evidence to the contrary.  Also, the 50-day moving average will soon cross over the 200 to the bearish side, and the index is trading well below the 200.  This index might tread water this week, and possibly next week, too, but then I expect it to resume its fall.

Now we get to the creme de la creme, the Dow Transports.  This index represents the movement of goods and services, and it has long been used as a leading indicator of the broader stock market.  When the market is going one way but the transports are going the opposite way, that's a good indicator that a change in the broader market is about to occur.

 

This chart looks similar to the small-cap chart.  The only significant difference I see is that the 50/200 crossover will happen sooner, probably after Tuesday's trading session.  My conclusions for the transport index is basically the same as for the Russell.

So that's my thinking right now.  Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong.  We'll see.  But I'm not backing up the truck just yet.  Maybe in April or May.

Not as bad as I thought it would be

A powerful storm system blew through here Tuesday night.  I was watching it on the Doppler, and it looked like it might get violent.  Strange thing, though; when it moved into Georgia from Alabama, it started to fizzle out.  We got some rain and wind, but it wasn't anywhere near as bad as I though it was going to be.  A lucky break.

The wind is still a little blustery here right now, but there's no real risk of damage or anything, so it's just an annoyance.

I checked the long-term forecast out of curiosity.  High temps next Tuesday are predicted to be 75.  The following days eventually get a little cooler, but not winter-time cooler.  More like spring.  Is March 11th going to be the de facto first day of spring?  Do we only have five days of winter left?  Man, I hope so.  I can deal with the cold, but only if it's a humid cold, and that's not we get around here.  We get a dry cold, and that just destroys me.  My DNA is optimized for northwestern Europe's wetter winter climates, and my body reminds me of that every January.

I've gotten most of my winter-time outdoor chores done, which mostly consists of getting rid of dead stuff to allow room for new spring growth.  Hopefully we'll have a nice spring flowering season.