DISCLAIMER: This blog post, and any other blog post of this sort, is for entertainment purposes only. It should not be construed as personal investment advice. If you want personal investment advice, hire a financial advisor.
Early April saw some wild action in the stock market, but things seem to have calmed down in recent trading sessions. Will they remain calm through May? Has the market already bottomed out? Or is there more trouble on the horizon?
Well, I can't answer those questions definitively, but I can take a look at the data and see what's what. So let's do that now.
First, let's look at the last few weeks of the S&P 500 chart.
As you can see, the MACD at the bottom is seeing some significant spread between the main line and the signal line. This often indicates an impending reversal (as you can see happened previously around April 7-8). The RSI at the top is higher than it's been in several weeks, but it's only at 56, so it's not in overbought territory yet, so that indicator isn't really telling us much right now. The most interesting thing about this chart is the last candle: it traded above the 50-day moving average. It's still close to it, though, so I wouldn't go so far as to call this "broken resistance." It will have to stay above the blue curve for a few days before I can make that call. Also, the candle gapped up, and as the old trader's axiom goes, gaps want to be filled. I wouldn't be surprised to see Friday's candle filling the gap and straddling the 50-dma curve.
Now let's look at the equally weighted version of the S&P:
Here we see a very similar situation as in the previous chart. RSI and MACD are basically the same. There's an important difference, though, and that's the last candle. It bumped into the 50-day moving average, and the resistance held.
Let's look at the small-cap index:
Basically the same as the chart above it. We can conclude from those three charts that a handful of mega-cap stocks are seeing the biggest gains in this recent upswing in the market. The rest are doing okay but are trailing behind the mega-caps.
Now let's look at the Dow Transports.
Uh-oh. This index is obviously performing the worst of the four. The most recent candle is still well shy of the 50-day moving average. The RSI is below 50. There's really nothing bullish about this chart at all, at least not as far as I can see.
So what can we conclude from all this? Well, the mega-caps will probably continue to outperform the broader market, but the other stocks are stagnating. When the transport index gets close to its 50-dma, something will have to give, and then we'll have a better idea. On the whole, though, I think the next leg up or down is more likely to be down.
Keep an eye on the VIX:
Last time the VIX hit the 200-day moving average, that proved to be a support line for that indicator and a top in the market. If the VIX gets close to that red curve, it might be signaling another top and the start of a new leg down.
So those are the two things I intend to watch: the proximity of the VIX to its 200-dma, and the proximity of the Transport index to its 50-dma. If nothing spooks the market beforehand--which is kind of a tall order, in my opinion, because of all the crazy things going on in the world right now--then look to those two convergences as indicators of a breakout to one side or another.