No damage here

I haven't blogged since before Hurricane Helene, so I figured I should state for the record that I'm fine and have suffered no property damage.  A bunch of sticks and a few large limbs were in the yard, but that's it.

I missed the northern lights last night.  Apparently, I could have seen it from here.  I found out about it too late.

I know the season is changing because the toilet mechanism is making some clicking and groaning noises.  Man, I hate plumbing.  It's better than not having it at all, but it still sucks.

I've been seeing some odd holes in the ground.  They look like acorn holes dug by squirrels, but they're deeper than the usual holes the squirrels dig.  Further from the trees, too.  Makes me wonder if this is one of those folklore signs about an unusually cold winter approaching.  Or maybe it's not squirrels at all and some other critter is responsible.

The response from volunteers helping out in Appalachia in the wake of Hurricane Helene has been a rare ray of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy decade.  Nice to see kindhearted folks donating their time, money, and effort for selfless reasons.  It's way too easy to forget that such people exist.

Gearing up

Something occurred to me the other day.  It had been tickling the back of my mind for a while, but I've only just recently been able to wrap my brain around it.

In some movies, particularly action movies, we often see the main character or characters gearing up in preparation for the big climactic battle.  For example, Commando, when Matrix is on the beach at the island.

 

 

Another example is in The Two Towers.

 

 

A common theme in these scenes is a sense of impending epic victory.  They inspire confidence in us viewers.  We feel like our heroes are ready to slay all the dragons.  Or, if they fail, then at least they'll go down in triumphant and legendary fashion.

And this is what makes the baptism sequence from The Godfather so interesting.  The mood there is completely different.  It feels like ordinary men, not extraordinary ones, getting ready in pedestrian fashion.  We see the old, overweight Clemenza huffing and puffing his way up the stairs, and we're sort of wondering if he'll make it to the top before having a heart attack.  We see Cicci getting a shave at the barber's while waiting for his target.  We see Al Neri donning the police uniform and mopping the sweat from his face.

 

It's all very workmanlike.  It's the wiseguy equivalent of punching a clock.  These guys don't have any illusions about what they're doing.  It's just a job.  And since they don't look like heroes or larger than life or anything of the sort, we're not as confident that they'll succeed.  Instead of creating excitement and eager anticipation like in Commando, this scene builds suspense.  We're nervous.  And that's what makes it so awesome.  It's one of the best climactic sequences ever put on film.

Powell flinches

As an old saying goes, the hardest part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch.  The Fed cut interest rates by fifty basis points last week, and I think it's safe to describe that as a flinch.  Whatever game the Fed was playing, they're not playing it anymore.

So what does this mean going forward?  Beats me, y'all.  I remember the Fed cutting rates all through the 2008-2009 financial crisis, so cutting rates in and of itself isn't some magic pill of rising stock prices.  Until we see the stock market actually start to falter, though, we have to assume that inflation will drive prices higher.  We saw this with gold this past week; it's still making new all-time highs.

But this is the reckoning season for stocks.  September and October are like swords of Damocles, historically speaking.  If there's going to be a crash, then I expect to see it within the next month, because this time of year is when these things often happen.  (Late winter/early spring is another danger zone.)

The 2020s have been full of insanity and destruction, and I fear this eldritch horror of a decade isn't finished tormenting us yet.  Screw your courage to the sticking place, folks, because you might need it in the days ahead.

Wild swings

We've seen some dramatic moves in the stock market recently, both bullish and bearish.  That sort of whipsaw can be tough to get a read on, and I'm not sure what to make of it myself.  The market seems a bit schizophrenic, frankly.

Commodities have been more clear-cut.  Gold made new all-time highs last week, and oil hit a 52-week low.  Each commodity's direction is obvious.

Oil won't fall forever, because the modern world is dependent on it, but it might fall a bit further yet.  I could see it potentially going to fifty or so before heading back up.  Low oil prices are a good time to buy oil-related stocks at a discount, so don't miss out.

Gold will continue climbing, because why shouldn't it?  Inflation hasn't stopped, nor has global de-dollarization, nor have central banks stopped buying gold.  All these factors and more conspire to push gold higher.

The elephant in the room, of course, is the Fed's meeting this week.  An interest rate cut is expected by pretty much everyone; the only question is how big the cut will be.  I personally think there's a non-trivial chance of no cut at all.  I think Jay Powell might do his "Lucy with the football" routine yet again.  If Powell's in a proxy war with the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, as some commentators believe, then it's not time to cut rates yet.  Not until the opponents cry uncle good and hard.

Finally, there's the fact that this is September, a historically bad month for stocks.  If there's going to be a crash this calendar year, then September and October are the best bets.  A Fed surprise this week might just be the trigger.

Mission success

Congratulations to SpaceX and everyone involved with the Polaris Dawn mission.  :)

Yeah, I think "first private spacewalk" is a pretty cool line to have on one's resume.

Next up is Mars, I guess.  Elon already laid it out:

After the uncrewed tests, Musk wants to have crews onboard a Starship mission to Mars in about four years. The “flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years,” added Musk.

A city on Mars in twenty years.  Wildly ambitious, yet I know better than to doubt the man.  He's like Howard Hughes crossed with Tony Stark.

I just hope there's a train to carry ice miners to and from the polar cap like in my book.  Every planet needs a train.

Joro proverb

 Decided to try my hand at an old-fashioned-style farmer's proverb:

 

When Joro spiders first appear

College football season's here

When Joro spiders rule the land

Halloween is close at hand

Polaris Dawn is under way

Successful launch on Tuesday.  Mission is proceeding.  :D

From space.com:

Polaris Dawn will attempt its historic spacewalk on Thursday (Sept. 12) at 2:23 a.m. ET (0623 GMT), SpaceX wrote in a mission description on its website.

Looking forward to it.

And as a child of the 1980s, I'm still hoping to see some Colonial Marines with pulse rifles at some point.  Elon, can you do this for us?  Pretty please?