Fed cuts a quarter

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point on Wednesday.  The market expected this, so the cut was already baked in.

I don't agree with the decision.  I think prices of goods are still way too high, and the only way to bring them down is with some sustained deflation.  We need higher interest rates, not lower ones.  Gold and silver have been making all-time highs in recent weeks, and that's kind of a red flag, you know?

In any event, the stock market is quiet at the moment... too quiet.  Volatility is noticeably low, indicating we're ripe for a correction.  September and October are historically volatile months for both stocks and world events, so keep an eye out for trouble.

Computer update

My laptop is old, and it shows.

I recently had to dispose of the battery.  It reached the end of its natural life.  Since I don't really take the laptop anywhere, and since it works fine without a battery and on AC power, I decided not to buy a replacement battery.

The "t" key is sttill somettimes double-striking and someimes nott registtering at all.  I'm leaving tthtis paragraph uncorrectted so you can see for yourself whatt I have to endure.  Yeah, itt sucks. 

The display sometimes features flashing horizontal lines.  It has something to do with color.  Also, pressure on it in a certain way can make it do the flashing thing.  There's obviously a bad connection somewhere where the screen portion of the laptop is hinged to the lower part.

The laptop is nearly nine years old, so it's no spring chicken, and it's served me pretty well.  I'll keep using it until it becomes unusable, but I fear that day is approaching faster than I would like. 

Thanks!

Just wanted to say thanks to the unknown benefactor who promoted Clouds of Venus today.  It's always nice to see a mysterious spike in free downloads.

To the new readers out there, I hope you enjoy the book.  :) 

Turf battle

Many people have mentioned that the appearance of the Joro spider in their yards has resulted in the native garden spider getting pushed out.  This was a concern of mine.  I like the Joros, but I don't like the idea of them thriving at the expense of the native species' right to exist.

Luckily, there's some good news.  There's a garden spider in the bearded irises.  The Joros have been here in my yard since 2022, but the garden spiders are also still here.  I'm encouraged by this.

I really hope the two species can find a way to coexist. 

Heat wave

Much of the country is dealing with a heat wave right now.  On Tuesday, it was 99 degrees here with a heat index of 111.

If you have to get outside to do yard work or sports or whatever, make sure you not only drink enough fluids but also replenish your body's salt.  Sports drinks like Gatorade are good for this.

Stay cool, folks. 

Hallucination rates on the rise

UPDATE:  I picked up some shares of Google today in spite of this post.  Since I now have a financial interest in the company, I'm disclosing that when necessary.

 

Well, this is a bit surprising.  I knew LLMs hallucinate from time to time, but I didn't expect that hallucination rate to rise.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rates-hallucination-ai-models-google-173138158.html

Are these things actually getting worse, or is this just a statistical blip?

Personal anecdote time:  A few days ago, I googled "what events happened on (my birthday)" to see what Google's search AI would say about it.  I typed out the exact date and spelled out the full name of the month so that there was no excuse for interpreting the date incorrectly.  The LLM gave me several events.  The first two events did NOT occur on my birthday but rather a month earlier according to Wikipedia.  But the AI said in its answer that they happened on (my birthday).  It straight-up lied to me.

This is a very easy thing to get right.  There's no excuse for this. 

To see the sun again

The month of May was rainy and cool.  I wouldn't be surprised then to see June be hot and dry.  That's the way things roll around here.

Even so, I'm eager to see the sun again.  I've seen and felt too little of it lately.  Gloomy weather enervates me, and I really want to feel more lively.

This week is supposed to be sunny with highs in the mid-80s.  Sounds great, man.  Let's hope it happens.